The figure shows our latest forecast using a neural network model trained with data up to the end of August 2002. The four panels are for 3-, 6-, 9-month and 12-month leadtimes respectively. The black line is the observed SSTA (in degree Celsius), and the blue circles are forecasts.
Our forecasts indicate that the tropical Pacific will remain moderately warm in the second half of 2002, returning to normal in the first half of 2003. Note that the model has not performed well in the past few months, where the forecasts have departed from the observations by 1-2 degrees Celsius.
El Nino and La Nina effects on Canada.