Sea surface temperature forecasts in the NINO3.4 region 
using data up to November 2001

The average tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the NINO3.4 region (5N-5S, 170W-120W) is often used as an El Nino index.


The figure shows our latest forecast using a neural network model trained with data up to November 2001. The four panels are for 3-, 6-, 9-month and 12-month leadtimes respectively. The black line is the observed SSTA (in degree Celsius), and the blue circles are forecasts.

Our forecasts indicate that the tropical Pacific will be in cold conditions in the first half of 2002, and recover to near normal condition in the second half of 2002.

More details about our model.

El Nino and La Nina effects on Canada


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