Sea surface temperature forecasts in the NINO3.4 region 
using data up to May 1999

The average tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the NINO3.4 region (5N-5S, 170W-120W) is often used as an El Nino index.


The figure shows our latest forecast using a neural network model trained with data up to May 1999. The four panels are for 3-, 6-, 9-month and 12-month leadtimes respectively. The black line is the observed SSTA (in degree Celsius), and the blue circles are forecasts.

Figure 1 shows the forecasts at leadtimes of 3, 6, 9, and 12-months, using data up to May 1999. Forecasts of all 4 leadtimes indicate that current La Nina conditions in the tropical Pacific will continue into the 1999/2000 winter. Our model has been consistently calling for a La Nina 1999/2000 winter since January 1999 .

More details about our model.

El Nino and La Nina effects on Canada


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