Sea surface temperature forecasts in the NINO3.4 region
using data up to June 1998

The average tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the NINO3.4 region (5N-5S, 170W-120W) is often used as an El Nino index.

The figure shows our latest forecast using a neural network model trained with data up to June 1998. The four panels are for 3-, 6-, 9-month and 12-month leadtimes respectively. The black line is the observed SSTA (in degree Celsius), and the blue circles are forecasts.

Forecasts of all 4 leadtimes indicate that the tropical system is evolving to a cold phase (a La Nina event), which should peak around winter 1998-99. We have been calling for a 1998-1999 La Nina since December 1997.

More details about our model.

El Nino and La Nina effects on Canada.


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