Sea surface temperature forecasts in the NINO3.4 region 
using data up to November 2002

The average tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the NINO3.4 region (5N-5S, 170W-120W) is often used as an El Nino index.

The figure shows our latest forecast using a neural network model trained with data up to the end of November 2002. The four panels are for 3-, 6-, 9-month and 12-month leadtimes respectively. The black line is the observed SSTA (in degree Celsius), and the blue circles are forecasts.

Our forecasts indicate that the tropical Pacific will remain moderately warm for the first few months of 2003, returning to normal for the rest of 2003.

More details about our model.

El Nino and La Nina effects on Canada

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